Label | Type | Description | Range/value | Eq. |
---|---|---|---|---|

x_{1}
| Variable | Type of moving window | Integer (1,..,3) | 4 |

x_{2}
| Variable | Long-term Max/min/variance relative to mean |
Sample (0,..,1), Prob (1,..,6)5^{-1}
| 4 |

x_{3}
| Variable | Length of moving window | Integer (2,..,20) | 4 |

x_{4}
| Variable | Gaussian or flat moving windows | Factor (True/False) | 4,6,7 |

x_{5}
| Variable | Standard deviation of Gaussian moving functions | Uniform (0,4) | 4,6,7 |

x_{6}
| Variable | Length of moving window | Integer (2,..,10) | 4 |

x_{7}
| Variable | Gaussian or flat moving windows | Factor (True/False) | 4,6 |

x_{8}
| Variable | Time lag for model variable | Integer (-2,..,0) | 4 |

x_{9}
| Variable | Length of moving window | Integer (0,..,4) | 5 |

x_{10}
| Variable | Type of moving window | Integer (1,..,3) | 6 |

x_{11}
| Variable | Long-term Max/min/variance relative to mean | Uniform (0,..,1) | 6 |

x_{12}
| Variable | Length of moving window | Integer (2,..,20) | 6 |

x_{13}
| Variable | Length of moving window | Integer (2,..,10) | 6 |

x_{14}
| Variable | Time lag | Integer (-2,..,0) | 6 |

x_{15}
| Variable | Length of moving window | Integer (1,..,10) | 7 |

x_{16}
| Variable | Max df used by interaction term smooth function | Integer (4,..,10) | 8 |

x_{17}
| Variable | Max df used by single-variable smooth function | Integer (3,..,5) | 8 |

T | Data | Composite tree-ring index; annual, normalized | AD 686 - 2000 | 3,4 |

S | Data | Isotope proxy monsoon index; normalized semi-annual | AD 450 - 2000 | 1,5,6 |

G_{dec}
| Data | Glacial accumulation; normalized, decadal, interpolated to annual | AD 450 - 2000 | 1,7 |

G_{ann}
| Data | Glacial accumulation; normalized, annual | AD 1690 - 2000 | 7 |

O | Data | Proportion of gerbil burrows occupied in the PreBalkhash focus | AD 1949 - 1995 | 2 |

A | Data | Number of gerbil burrows per hectare in the PreBalkhash focus | AD 1949 - 1995 | 2 |

C | Data | Number of gerbils per burrow in the PreBalkhash focus | AD 1949 - 1995 | 2 |

E | Data | Number of gerbils examined for plague in the PreBalkhash focus | AD 1949 - 1995 | 2 |

B | Data | Number of examined gerbils having plague infection | AD 1949 - 1995 | 2 |

P | Data | Abundance of sylvatic plague in PreBalkhash, Kazakhstan. | AD 1949 - 1995 | 2,8 |

${\widehat{P}}_{i}$ | Estimate | Estimated (fitted) values of P for each iteration i of eq. 8. | AD 450-2000 | |

d | Data | Presence/absence plague control | AD 450 - 2000 | 10 |

H | Data | Reported number of human plague cases from Kazakhstan | AD 1904 - 1995 | 10 |

Y | Estimate | Average predicted sylvatic plague level | AD 450-2000 | 9,10 |

NDVI | Data | Normalized Differentiated Vegetation Index | AD 1982 to 1998 | |

D | Estimate | Correlation coefficients for the relationships between ${\widehat{P}}_{i}$ and H | AD 1904-1948 | |

W | Data | The index of conflict between Han Chinese and Central Asian pastoralists [38] | AD 450-1700 |