Table 1 A summary and description of terms^a

x₁

Variable

Type of moving window

Integer (1,..,3)

4

x₂

Variable

Long-term Max/min/variance relative to mean

Sample (0,..,1), Prob (1,..,6)5^-1

4

x₃

Variable

Length of moving window

Integer (2,..,20)

4

x₄

Variable

Gaussian or flat moving windows

Factor (True/False)

4,6,7

x₅

Variable

Standard deviation of Gaussian moving functions

Uniform (0,4)

4,6,7

x₆

Variable

Length of moving window

Integer (2,..,10)

4

x₇

Variable

Gaussian or flat moving windows

Factor (True/False)

4,6

x₈

Variable

Time lag for model variable

Integer (-2,..,0)

4

x₉

Variable

Length of moving window

Integer (0,..,4)

5

x₁₀

Variable

Type of moving window

Integer (1,..,3)

6

x₁₁

Variable

Long-term Max/min/variance relative to mean

Uniform (0,..,1)

6

x₁₂

Variable

Length of moving window

Integer (2,..,20)

6

x₁₃

Variable

Length of moving window

Integer (2,..,10)

6

x₁₄

Variable

Time lag

Integer (-2,..,0)

6

x₁₅

Variable

Length of moving window

Integer (1,..,10)

7

x₁₆

Variable

Max df used by interaction term smooth function

Integer (4,..,10)

8

x₁₇

Variable

Max df used by single-variable smooth function

Integer (3,..,5)

8

T

Data

Composite tree-ring index; annual, normalized

AD 686 - 2000

3,4

S

Data

Isotope proxy monsoon index; normalized semi-annual

AD 450 - 2000

1,5,6

G_dec

Data

Glacial accumulation; normalized, decadal, interpolated to annual

AD 450 - 2000

1,7

G_ann

Data

Glacial accumulation; normalized, annual

AD 1690 - 2000

7

O

Data

Proportion of gerbil burrows occupied in the PreBalkhash focus

AD 1949 - 1995

2

A

Data

Number of gerbil burrows per hectare in the PreBalkhash focus

AD 1949 - 1995

2

C

Data

Number of gerbils per burrow in the PreBalkhash focus

AD 1949 - 1995

2

E

Data

Number of gerbils examined for plague in the PreBalkhash focus

AD 1949 - 1995

2

B

Data

Number of examined gerbils having plague infection

AD 1949 - 1995

2

P

Data

Abundance of sylvatic plague in PreBalkhash, Kazakhstan.

AD 1949 - 1995

2,8

${\widehat{P}}_i$

Estimate

Estimated (fitted) values of P for each iteration i of eq. 8.

AD 450-2000

d

Data

Presence/absence plague control

AD 450 - 2000

10

H

Data

Reported number of human plague cases from Kazakhstan

AD 1904 - 1995

10

Y

Estimate

Average predicted sylvatic plague level

AD 450-2000

9,10

NDVI

Data

Normalized Differentiated Vegetation Index

AD 1982 to 1998

D

Estimate

Correlation coefficients for the relationships between ${\widehat{P}}_i$ and H

AD 1904-1948

W

Data

The index of conflict between Han Chinese and Central Asian pastoralists [38]

AD 450-1700