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Table 1 A summary and description of termsa

From: Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: Palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium

Label Type Description Range/value Eq.
x1 Variable Type of moving window Integer (1,..,3) 4
x2 Variable Long-term Max/min/variance relative to mean Sample (0,..,1), Prob (1,..,6)5-1 4
x3 Variable Length of moving window Integer (2,..,20) 4
x4 Variable Gaussian or flat moving windows Factor (True/False) 4,6,7
x5 Variable Standard deviation of Gaussian moving functions Uniform (0,4) 4,6,7
x6 Variable Length of moving window Integer (2,..,10) 4
x7 Variable Gaussian or flat moving windows Factor (True/False) 4,6
x8 Variable Time lag for model variable Integer (-2,..,0) 4
x9 Variable Length of moving window Integer (0,..,4) 5
x10 Variable Type of moving window Integer (1,..,3) 6
x11 Variable Long-term Max/min/variance relative to mean Uniform (0,..,1) 6
x12 Variable Length of moving window Integer (2,..,20) 6
x13 Variable Length of moving window Integer (2,..,10) 6
x14 Variable Time lag Integer (-2,..,0) 6
x15 Variable Length of moving window Integer (1,..,10) 7
x16 Variable Max df used by interaction term smooth function Integer (4,..,10) 8
x17 Variable Max df used by single-variable smooth function Integer (3,..,5) 8
T Data Composite tree-ring index; annual, normalized AD 686 - 2000 3,4
S Data Isotope proxy monsoon index; normalized semi-annual AD 450 - 2000 1,5,6
Gdec Data Glacial accumulation; normalized, decadal, interpolated to annual AD 450 - 2000 1,7
Gann Data Glacial accumulation; normalized, annual AD 1690 - 2000 7
O Data Proportion of gerbil burrows occupied in the PreBalkhash focus AD 1949 - 1995 2
A Data Number of gerbil burrows per hectare in the PreBalkhash focus AD 1949 - 1995 2
C Data Number of gerbils per burrow in the PreBalkhash focus AD 1949 - 1995 2
E Data Number of gerbils examined for plague in the PreBalkhash focus AD 1949 - 1995 2
B Data Number of examined gerbils having plague infection AD 1949 - 1995 2
P Data Abundance of sylvatic plague in PreBalkhash, Kazakhstan. AD 1949 - 1995 2,8
P ^ i Estimate Estimated (fitted) values of P for each iteration i of eq. 8. AD 450-2000  
d Data Presence/absence plague control AD 450 - 2000 10
H Data Reported number of human plague cases from Kazakhstan AD 1904 - 1995 10
Y Estimate Average predicted sylvatic plague level AD 450-2000 9,10
NDVI Data Normalized Differentiated Vegetation Index AD 1982 to 1998  
D Estimate Correlation coefficients for the relationships between P ^ i and H AD 1904-1948  
W Data The index of conflict between Han Chinese and Central Asian pastoralists [38] AD 450-1700  
  1. aFor x1.17, the ranges from which new values were drawn under model construction are given.
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