Figure 4

Probability distribution functions to reach the diagnostic threshold. Stochastic simulations of Moran dynamics, recording the probability that the mutant clone reaches the diagnostic threshold at a given time after the occurrence of the mutation (diagnosis is here defined as at least 20% of the cells being mutated) as a function of the fitness advantage (r) of mutated cells. The smaller the fitness advantage of mutated cells, the longer it takes for the threshold to be reached, and the smaller the probability of reaching the threshold in a given time.