Fig. 4
Replacement, remediation, and confinement outcomes for translocations and UDMEL. Outcomes are depicted for the proportion of 50 stochastic simulations of population replacement, remediation, and confinement of translocations and UDMEL that result in fixation of each system. a–d For replacement and remediation, each cell corresponds to a given number of releases (horizontal axis) and coverage level (vertical axis), given 20 adult Ae. aegypti per household per release. For replacement, releases are of males homozygous for the system into a wild-type population. For remediation of translocations, releases are of wild-type males into a population homozygous for the translocation, and for mixed remediation of UDMEL, releases are of wild-type females and males into a population homozygous for UDMEL. Blue cells represent cases where all simulations result in fixation of the system, and white cells represent cases where the wild-type is fixed in all simulations. e, f For confinement, each cell corresponds to a daily number of batch migration events (horizontal axis) of a given size (vertical axis) from Yorkeys Knob, where the system is fixed, to Trinity Park, where the system is initially absent. Dark pink cells represent cases where all simulations result in fixation of the system in Trinity Park, and white cells represent cases where the wild-type is fixed in all simulations. These results are encouraging for translocations as systems for introducing transgenes in a local and reversible way as (i) they can be remediated through an achievable number of male-only releases and (ii) they require more batch migration events to spread to neighboring communities